In our uncertain and unpredictable world, there are few things we can rely on. But Thailand’s military, reassuringly, always tends to behave in accordance with a few simple and easy-to-understand rules.
For one thing, we can generally assume with a high degree of certainty that at any time, some group of disgruntled and ambitious Thai military officers is plotting a coup. In the 80 years since Thailand abolished absolute monarchy and began tentative steps towards democracy, the military has launched 18 coups - some successful, some not. The military is far less enthusiastic when it comes to inconvenient distractions like having to defend the country from external threats. As Duncan McCargo, professor of Southeast Asian politics at the University of Leeds, wrote in a 2002 article:
[Thailand's] military is first and foremost an armed bureaucracy, which does not fight wars. Instead, military officers have preferred to devote their energies to the more interesting and satisfying professions of business and politics. Their core businesses have been smuggling, logging, and profiting from the country’s natural resources.